The
strange days continue, cue
The Doors. In a nutshell,
Keybot the Quant remains short but will flip long at SPX 1420.34 today if this level holds a few minutes. SOX and XLF are firmly bullish. VIX remains above 15.85, bearish. The 10-year is at 1.62%. The SPX is printing 1416.20 right now. The
Nasdaq has turned red so tech is leading lower. The markets are very erratic and unstable. Typically it is best to watch in these markets. If the bulls can grab 1420+ they will be able to run with the ball. Until then, the mixed signals and odd market behavior continues. The
50-day MA is 1417.07, use this as a major bull-bear signal today.
Consumer Sentiment was surprisingly weak but markets spiked higher on the pivot, then rolled over.
Note Added 12/7/12 at 12:41 PM: Status quo.
Speaker Boehner laid an egg at 11 AM saying 'no progress, the Whitehouse has wasted another week, the president is slowly walking us to the cliff, Geithner's comments were reckless, the president's plan results in trillion dollar deficits forever'. Perhaps next time he will tell everyone how he really feels. The SPX dropped about three handles and the comments created a negative market tone.
XLF is near 16. SOX is leaking off the highs but remains elevated at 377. VIX is at 16.40-ish, the confluence of the 20 and 50-day MA. Use this as a
bull-bear signal for today. VIX above 16.40 is happy bears, below 16.40 is happy bulls. Friday's markets typically experience some buoyancy in the afternoon as short traders pare back positions due to event risk on the weekend, which would typically be positive market news occurring. So markets may float upwards over the next couple hours. Watch to see if the bulls can attain 1420+ today, or not. The
strong 1413 support is holding. The
50-day MA at 1417.08 is overhead resistance. The 10-year yield is 1.62%.
Nasdaq and RUT are negative, the SPX and Dow Industrials are positive, thus,
tech and small caps are leading the broad markets lower. AAPL is down -2.6% today but is now trying to make a run off the bottom. The
beat goes on, cue
Sonny & Cher.
Note Added 12/7/12 at 4:13 PM: Status quo into the close although
volatilty fell like a stone. The
VIX came down to threaten 15.85, closing at 15.88, perhaps still settling out. The bulls pushed the markets higher in the afternoon as would be anticipated. No great shakes today,
SPX 1420 will be important come Monday, and obviously, since the VIX came down for the bull-bear line in the sand,
whichever way the VIX moves after Monday's bell, the broad indexes will move opposite. The 10-year yield showed some life today jumping to 1.63%.
AAPL is near the Death Cross, but not yet. The
50-day MA is 597.89. The 200-day MA is 597.45. Thus, the moving averages remain 44 pennies short of crossing, so
Monday appears the day the Death Cross occurs for Apple. There is no doubt that the
bulls are pricing in a positive solution to the fiscal cliff. TRIN prints 0.51, three uber bullish euphoric buying days in a row, that simply does not occur often. The markets need to sell off to relieve the excessively bullish buying and force the TRIN back above 1.00 for a day or two. The
SPX closes at 1418.07 above the 50-day MA at 1417.16, a feather in the bulls cap. This
test of the 50 is important since now price must decide to either stay above using the 50-day as support moving forward, or, collapse in failure. The answer occurs early next week.
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